Holiday labour maths: headcount from your order forecast, overtime vs agency vs direct-hire costs, ramp curve & book-by warnings.
Every November the same panic hits: orders triple, the packing bench is chaos, and agencies quote you panic prices. Staffing for peak season is simple arithmetic — daily orders × minutes per order ÷ shift hours — but the cost of getting it wrong (overtime, agency markups, no-shows, training) is where sellers bleed. This planner turns your order forecast into a headcount, a full seasonal budget, and a side-by-side of hiring direct vs agency vs overtime.
Enter your peak daily orders and how long one order takes to pick and pack honestly (time it — most sellers underestimate by 30%). Add your shift length, season days, wage and AOV. The hiring-reality section covers overtime, agency markups, training cost per hire and a no-show buffer. You get a cost breakdown, three scenarios compared, and a week-by-week ramp so you don't pay peak headcount in the quiet weeks.
Know your true fulfilment cost per order, forecast the carrier surcharge hit, and make sure your ads survive November with the ad cost surge planner.
Six to eight weeks before your peak. Inside three weeks, agencies add 15–25% premiums and the reliable temps are already placed. The planner's late-booking toggle shows you the penalty in dollars.
Direct is cheaper on paper; agency wins when you're late, need fast replacement for no-shows, or want to skip training overhead. The scenario table prices both so you can see the real gap.
Under 10% of AOV is comfortable, 10–15% is watch-it territory, over 15% is a red flag. If you're over, attack minutes-per-order first — batch picking and pre-packed bestsellers move the needle fastest.
10–15% for casual seasonal staff. Students and gig workers ghost at real rates in December; hiring exactly to headcount means you're short-staffed on your busiest days.
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